A research project, built in public. We invest only our own money. Nothing here is investment advice.
tavrıse.comSee our portfolio

Portfolio 1 of 6 · Live since 26 Oct 2026 · day 5

Quality & Value

Profitable Brazilian companies that, in our view, the market prices too cheaply. The thesis is fixed. The companies in it change whenever the evidence does.

Our result
−5.4%
Ibovespa
−4.4%
CDI
+0.2%

Since 26 Oct 2026 (5 days), at the close of 30 Oct 2026. After trading fees, before tax. Unit value 0.9464, from 1.0000 at the start.

Why, in 30 seconds

  1. The thesis. Own high-return, financially solid Brazilian companies when the market prices them as if things will go badly.
  2. Why now. The market had bet on the other candidate. When he lost, it sold good companies as if Brazil were about to break. We think it overreacted.
  3. How it changes. Tavrise AI reassesses every company twice a week, but swaps are rare on purpose: each company stays at least 30 days, changes are at least 30 days apart, and a replacement must be clearly better. Every change is logged below.
The full research · about 12 minutesWhy we bought these ten companiesWhat happened on 26 October, the benchmark problem, how the companies were screened, the risks, what would prove us wrong, and the first proposal we rejected.

What we own

10 companies today. Select one for our analysis.

Worth now: R$ 18,799.47 −5.4%

CompanyIn the portfolioWeightSharesWe paidWorth nowReturn
Itaú Unibanco ITUB4Brazil’s best-run private bank, bought at under 10 times earnings.since 26 Oct 20265 days14.8%72R$ 2,975.76R$ 2,785.68−6.4%
Vale VALE3Dollar revenue that cushions the portfolio if the real weakens.since 26 Oct 20265 days12.5%38R$ 2,476.84R$ 2,356.76−4.8%
BTG Pactual BPAC11The highest-return large bank in Brazil, priced for the worst.since 26 Oct 20265 days9.9%36R$ 2,004.48R$ 1,854.72−7.5%
B3 B3SA3Brazil’s only stock exchange, with net cash, after a 36% fall.since 26 Oct 20265 days9.6%134R$ 1,980.82R$ 1,799.62−9.1%
Cury CURY3Builds homes for the government’s housing program.since 26 Oct 20265 days10.7%78R$ 1,969.50R$ 2,020.20+2.6%
Lojas Renner LREN3The leading clothing retailer, with net cash, at about 6.5 times earnings.since 26 Oct 20265 days10.2%213R$ 1,974.64R$ 1,912.74−3.1%
Sabesp SBSP3A privatised water utility with inflation-linked tariffs.since 26 Oct 20265 days10.4%79R$ 1,954.46R$ 1,951.30−0.2%
Direcional DIRR3The second housing-program builder, at about 5 times earnings.since 26 Oct 20265 days7.5%174R$ 1,490.18R$ 1,402.44−5.9%
Multiplan MULT3Premium malls with inflation-linked rents.since 26 Oct 20265 days7.4%55R$ 1,483.35R$ 1,385.45−6.6%
Rede D’Or RDOR3The largest hospital network in the country.since 26 Oct 20265 days7.1%42R$ 1,483.86R$ 1,330.56−10.3%

R$ 19,863.51 of our money: R$ 19,793.89 in 13 orders plus R$ 69.62 in brokerage and exchange fees. Values at the close of 30 Oct 2026, including dividends declared; the result above is after fees, before tax. Disclosed for transparency; not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold these securities.

Former holdings

None yet. When a company leaves, it stays listed here with its dates and result.

Since we started

Return since 26 Oct: Tavrise, Ibovespa and CDI
DateTavriseIbovespaCDI
Start0.0%0.0%0.0%
26 Oct+2.4%−0.3%0.0%
27 Oct+2.9%+0.0%+0.1%
28 Oct−0.9%−2.6%+0.1%
29 Oct−3.4%−3.7%+0.2%
30 Oct−5.4%−4.4%+0.2%

Proof of purchase

The trade confirmation (nota de negociação) for every order, as issued on 26 Oct 2026. It matches our records to the cent: 13 trades, R$ 19,793.89, plus R$ 69.62 in fees.

We removed only private details: address, phone, account number and the advisor’s name and code. The text is deleted, not covered, and nothing else was changed.

Verify the originals

These are the SHA-256 fingerprints of the original, unredacted files, time-stamped on the Bitcoin blockchain through OpenTimestamps on 30 Oct 2026. An auditor given the originals can confirm they match and existed on that date: fingerprints · timestamp proof.

cae52e92dc3c8edb3a4fcdb332a20b71e2e4e6b311c4105aa254fbff9a0d40fd · exchange format
1ccb0eea32187229d7433eff5821710ed34aebbcbf4a02262edbcbfdeaa4f5be · broker format

Are the swaps helping?

We keep tracking the original 10 companies as if we had never changed anything. If our swaps don’t beat that, Tavrise AI isn’t adding value, and this box will show it.

Our portfolio, with every swap
−5.4%
The original 10, never swapped
−5.4%
Difference
No swaps yet

Every assessment and decision

Tavrise AI reassesses every company on Tuesdays and Fridays after the close and compares it with the best candidates from a weekly quality-and-value screen of the liquid B3 stocks. Other AI models check its reading. To keep fees and tax down, a company stays at least 30 days, changes are at least 30 days apart, and a replacement must score clearly higher. A person approves every change before it is made.

  1. Assessment

    Keep all 10

    1 intact9 watching0 brokenSecond opinion: 20 of 20 readings agreed

    Company by company
    CompanyThesisOutcomeWhy
    ITUB4Thesis intactKeepTese original: P/L baixo e crédito controlado. No 2T26, inadimplência de 1,9% e CET1 de 12,3%, dentro dos gatilhos (2,5%/11%). Dados anteriores ao choque de 26/10. Queda para 38,69 é sinal de preço, não de quebra. Verificar o 3T26.In Portuguese; translation pending
    VALE3WatchingKeep, look closerTese original: proteção cambial e peso no Ibovespa. O 2T26 mostra geração de caixa, mas não comprova a proteção e alerta para perdas simultâneas. Não há fato regulatório ou de reparação documentado. Sem dados de câmbio, a revisão mensal é a etapa pertinente.In Portuguese; translation pending
    B3SA3WatchingKeep, look closerA diligência obrigatória da tese (fato específico que explique a queda) não consta. Há apenas lucro contábil do 2T26. Caiu 5,4% em 30/10 sem explicação disponível. Não há evidência de mudança regulatória ou tributária, mas a ausência de notícias não prova estabilidade.In Portuguese; translation pending
    BPAC11WatchingKeep, look closerA tese depende do ROE recorrente e do risco de marcação do livro de trading após a alta dos juros. Só há ITR contábil do 2T26, anterior ao choque. Não há dado sobre trading nem ROE recorrente. Caiu 4,7% em 30/10, sinal de preço sem fato documentado.In Portuguese; translation pending
    CURY3WatchingKeep, look closerTese MCMV/FGTS com caixa líquido. Só há ITR do 2T26. Orçamento do MCMV, faixas e margem bruta não foram coletados. Posição positiva (+50,70), mas resultado não valida a tese. O tema MCMV soma ≈18% do patrimônio.In Portuguese; translation pending
    DIRR3WatchingKeep, look closerTese: segunda construtora do MCMV. Só há ITR contábil do 2T26. Margem, geração de caixa e orçamento MCMV/FGTS não foram medidos. Queda para 8,06 não constitui quebra documentada. Preço médio de 8,56 difere da execução de 8,57.In Portuguese; translation pending
    LREN3WatchingKeep, look closerGatilho da tese: perdas de crédito do cartão crescendo por dois trimestres ou perda de margem. Nenhum desses indicadores está nas evidências; há só lucro contábil do 2T26. Caiu 4,3% em 30/10, sinal de preço sem fato identificado.In Portuguese; translation pending
    SBSP3WatchingKeep, look closerTese: indexação tarifária ao IPCA e regulação estadual. Não há evidência sobre revisão tarifária ou plano de investimentos, apenas ITR contábil do 2T26. Preço próximo da entrada (24,70 contra 24,74). Não há quebra documentada.In Portuguese; translation pending
    MULT3WatchingKeep, look closerGatilhos da tese: ocupação, vendas mesmas lojas contra a inflação e dívida/EBITDA acima de 2,5x. Nenhum foi medido; há apenas lucro e PL contábeis do 2T26. A comparação de ROE com ALOS3 não foi verificada nas evidências.In Portuguese; translation pending
    RDOR3WatchingKeep, look closerTese: margem hospitalar e sinistralidade da operadora. Esses indicadores não estão nas evidências; há só ITR contábil do 2T26. Queda de ≈10% desde a entrada é sinal de preço, não prova de deterioração.In Portuguese; translation pending

  2. Decision

    Bought 10 stocks for R$ 19,793.89 in 13 orders

    Sealed · f0aed5ab9e70

  3. Decision

    Reasons and sell rules filed

    Sealed · d018b90fe970